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Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................... i CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION ....................................... 1 CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW................................. . 9 Overall Impact of Lack of Markets or Declining Markets .................................... ...... . 10 Impact of Capital Resource and Supply- Side Constraints . .......................................... 13 a. Overall Analyses......................................... 13 b. Small Business Administration Assistance ..... . . ........ .. . . . . . . . . 15 c. Black Commercial Banking ................................. . 18 Effect of Limited Business Human Capital ..... . ... . . . .. .. . .. . . .... . .. 22 Effect of Racial Discrimination ................................. . 24 An Overall Analysis of Supply and Demand Factors ............. . .... .. 26 Limitations of Previous Work and Contrasts with Present Study ........................................ ..... 27 CHAPTER III: METHODOLOGY AND RESEARCH DESIGN ...... . ......... 32 Overview ................................................. 32 Model and Hypotheses ........................................ 32 Principal Independent Variables .................................. . 38 Measurement of Dependent Variables ............ . . . ........... . . . . . . . 40 Basic Regression Model ........................................ 41 Sources of Data ............... ............................. . 42 CHAPTER IV: FINDINGS OF THE STUDY .............................. 45 Descriptive Findings ............... .......................... 45 a. Firms Per 1000 Black Population .................. ......... 45 b. Receipts Per Capita ...................................... 49 c. Firm Scale ................................... 52 d. Variation in SBA Activity and Black Median Family Income .......... 55 Regression Results .......................................... 64 a. Growth in Receipts ...................................... 65 b. Growth in Number of Firms ................................ . 69 c. Firms with Paid Employees ................................ . 73 d. Paid Employment ....................... ................ 77 e. Quantitative Impact of Significant Variables .. .................. 79 CHAPTER V: OVERALL CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS ....... 83 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................ 89 TABLE 1: PRINCIPAL INDEPENDENT VARIABLES.................. 38 TABLE 2: DATA SOURCES .................................... 43 TABLE 3: GROWTH IN FIRMS PER 1000 BLACK POPULATION IN SMSA's BY REGION .............................. 48 TABLE 4: GROWTH IN SALES PER CAPITA IN SMSA's BY REGION...... 51 TABLE 5: CHANGE IN FIRM SCALE IN SMSA's BY REGION ........... 54 TABLE 6: DISTRIBUTION OF SBA LOANS IN SMSA's BY REGION, 1971 and 1972 ................................ 56 TABLE 7: DISTRIBUTION OF SBA LOANS IN SMSA's BY REGION, 1976 and 1977 ........................................ 57 TABLE 8: CHANGE IN SBA LOANS TO SMSA's BY REGION ........... 58 TABLE 9: MEDIAN BLACK FAMILY INCOME IN SMSA's BY REGION, 1972 .................................. .......... 61 TABLE 10: MEDIAN BLACK FAMILY INCOME IN SMSA's BY REGION, 1977 ............................................ 62 TABLE 11: GROWTH IN MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME IN SMSA's BY REGION ......................................... .63 REGRESSION TABLE 1: Change in Black Receipts Per Capita ............ 68 REGRESSION TABLE 2: Change in Number of Black Firms Per 1000 Black Population ................................ 72 REGRESSION TABLE 3: Change in Black Firms with Paid Employees Per 1000 Black Population ..... . .... . . . . . . .. 76 REGRESSION TABLE 4: Changes in Paid Employment Per 1000 Population . .. 78 Appendix A: .............. ......................................... 95 Summary Statistics for Variables by Year Appendix B: ........................................................ 96 B.1 Sales Profile of Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 1972 and 1977 B.2 Twenty Highest Ranking SMSA's by Receipts Per Capita, 1972 and 1977 B.3 Twenty Lowest Ranking SMSA's by Receipts Per Capita, 1972 and 1977 B.4 Twenty Highest Ranking SMSA's by Increase in Receipts/Capita B.5 Twenty Lowest Ranking SMSA's by Increase in Receipts/Capita Appendix C: . ......... ............................................ 107 C.1 Firm Profile of Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 1972 and 1977 C.2 Twenty Highest Ranking SMSA's by Firms Per 1000 Black Population C.3 Twenty Lowest SMSA's by Firms Per 1000 Black Population C.4 Twenty Highest SMSA's by Increase in Firms Per 1000 Black Population C.5 Twenty Lowest SMSA's by Increase in Firms Per 1000 Black Population Appendix D: ........................................................ 117 SBA Loans by Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area Appendix E: . ..................................................... 122 Black Commercial Bank Loans By SMSA Appendix F: ........................ ............................. 125 Correlation Matrix