A peaceful settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could occur in 2004, ending a 15-year-old blockade of trade and travel that is stifling the economies of both countries, U.S. Ambassador to Armenia John Ordway said at a Library lecture.
Ambassador John Ordway - Levon Avdoyan
"In my judgment, it is a matter of political will of the presidents of both countries to educate and inform their populace that there must be painful compromises to achieve the greater good that settlement will bring," Ordway said in a Jan. 10 discussion of the politics, people, history, and economy of Armenia, a nation in the Near East that is slightly smaller than Maryland.
The fourth ambassador to Armenia, Ordway spoke for about 45 minutes. The audience of about 100 included Harry Gilmore, the first U.S. ambassador to Armenia, and Arman Kirakossian, the current Armenian ambassador to the United States.
The first to establish a mission in independent Armenia, in 1992, the United States focused initially on food, shelter, and fuel needs resulting from a 1988 earthquake that killed 25,000 and left 500,000 homeless. Now the U.S. mission is engaged in political and economic reforms and conflict resolution, said Ordway.
Armenia was part of Russia from 1828 until its independence in 1991. In the 1920s, Moscow gave Soviet Azerbaijan the secessionist Armenian ethnic exclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Fighting over this region began in 1988 and escalated with the Soviet breakup in 1991; the Armenian military now occupies almost one-fifth of Azerbaijan. A cease-fire has been in place since 1994 and peace talks were held in Key West in 2001.
"Unless and until the [Nagorno-Karabakh] issue is resolved, the Azerbaijan blockade [of Armenia] will continue, and the one on the Turkey side will too," Ordway said in response to a question from the audience at the end of the session. Azerbaijan borders Armenia on the east and south, except for a southern strip that Armenia shares with Iran. Turkey borders Armenia on the West. Armenia's only avenues of commerce and travel are Georgia to the north and Iran to the south.
"We are against blockades but we don't have a lot of tools," said Ordway. "If we have committed leaders, if we have the political capital invested, there is hope of moving the societies to accept solutions; it depends on the process."
He said he will work to "engage the presidents and vice presidents to meet and to be vigilant about the cease-fire at the time of contact," but only after Armenia's presidential election on Feb. 19 and parliamentary elections in late May.
Ordway said there is a question of whether the political will exists to hold free and fair elections. The Armenian legislature rewrote the election code to provide the basis for free elections, and international partners are in place to train election officials and observers. However, he said, "the population is more alienated than engaged in the political process," and political parties lack the machinery they have in the United States. Once elected, officials do not have staff, and committees have neither staff nor office space.
"That's why we have to work with librarians to develop the tools to have a responsive legislature," said Ordway.
Armenia is home to 3 million people whom Ordway described as talented, hospitable, and hard working. The country will join the World Trade Organization in one or two months, said Ordway, calling this a "cooperative victory" for the United States and Armenia. "Armenia is on the right path and everyone is committed to going down that path," he said.
Although the economy has shown strong and sustained growth (at 13 percent, the highest in the region), half of the people are impoverished. Over the past 10 years, some 1 million Armenians have emigrated, mostly to low-paying jobs in Russia, which is a $40 bus ride away, he said. Ordway said graduates of international exchange programs, such as the Edmund S. Muskie Fellowship Program, tend to seek work with embassies, nongovernmental organizations, or consulting firms instead of becoming the entrepreneurs so desperately needed to help the Armenian economy.
"We need to start small and medium-size businesses to improve the climate so people think there is a future," said Ordway. With the Bush administration poised to propose reductions in aid, Ordway said, potential investors should not only send money but also should become active partners in Armenian businesses. Noting that Armenia has an abundance of scientists educated during the Soviet regime, Ordway suggested their research as a profitable commodity.
"The government and private sector in Armenia are good for democratic and civil society," said Ordway. "We have good partners to develop Armenia. This starts with the interest of Armenian Americans who have good friends in Congress who give us the tools to move forward."
Alluding to perceived tensions between American and native Armenians, Ordway suggested: "If you see a problem over there, don't just come back and complain to your neighbor. Go back to Armenia and find someone there to fix it."
Levon Avdoyan, an Armenian and Georgian area specialist in the African and Middle Eastern Division, invited Ordway to lecture in the quarterly Library of Congress Armenian Seminar. Avdoyan concluded: "As someone whose task it is to provide information and knowledge, I learned more today about Armenia in its present state than in the past year."
Among 26,000 items in the Library's Armenian collection are Greek and Latin texts from the ancient Christian country, which were of interest to Thomas Jefferson, whose library Congress purchased in 1815. The African and Middle Eastern Division, which cares for this collection, also sponsors the Vardanants Day Lecture Series, now entering its 11th year.
