On July 25 Paula J. Dobriansky of the Washington law firm of Hunton and Williams presented a lecture in which she expressed optimism for the future of Ukraine.
The lecture, "Ukrainian-Polish Relations, Problems and Prospects," was cosponsored by the Library of Congress Professional Association Polish and Ukrainian language tables.
Dr. Dobriansky's impressive r‚sum‚ includes service as deputy assistant secretary of state for human rights and humanitarian affairs, associate director for policy and programs at the U.S. Information Agency, co-chair of the International TV Council at the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and deputy head of the U.S. delegation to the 1990 Copenhagen Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe.
Currently, she advises clients on politics and trade in Central Europe, the former Soviet Union and Asia, assisting in the organization and implementation of Western private ventures throughout the region. Additionally, Dr. Dobriansky serves on numerous boards, including the National Endowment for Democracy and the American Committee for Aid to Poland. She is the chair of the Political-Economic Working Group of the U.S.-Ukraine Advisory Committee and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Dr. Dobriansky suggested that as long as Ukrainians maintain a sense of humor in the face of crushing economic problems, there are grounds for optimism. Dr. Dobriansky argues that there are indeed concrete signs that the Ukrainian economy may have begun to turn the corner, as recent reforms designed by the administration of President Leonid Kuchma take effect.
The success of economic reform in Ukraine has direct bearing on the economic well-being and political stability of its western neighbor, Poland. Despite several years of encouraging economic performance, Poland remains politically fragile, she said. Should reform in Ukraine fail -- an unlikely scenario, Dr. Dobriansky believes -- a potential wave of economic refugees could burden Poland's democracy and jeopardize its economic gains.
Dr. Dobriansky discounts two other negative scenarios: (1) Ukraine fails as an independent state and is reabsorbed into a Russian-dominated Commonwealth of Independent States; or (2) Ukraine succeeds economically but surrenders its foreign policy autonomy to Moscow.
The eventual success of the Ukrainian transition, the speaker asserted, would open the possibility for closer economic and military cooperation with Poland, enhancing the stability of Central Europe, as well as aiding the transition in Russia.
With a population of more than 52 million, Ukraine represents an enormous potential market for Polish exports. From the Ukrainian perspective, Poland is a model proving that market reforms can work and represents a bridge to the West.
Because Poland and Ukraine rely so heavily on each other, both assign the highest priority to improving their relations. Kiev appreciates the historical significance of Poland's being the first country to recognize Ukraine's independence from the Soviet Union in December 1991. Since then the countries have signed and implemented numerous cooperation agreements, and the relationship generally has continued to improve. Each country has adopted enlightened nationalities policies ensuring minority rights and defusing a potentially explosive issue," said Dr. Dobriansky.
Current problems in the Ukrainian-Polish relationship are relatively insignificant in historic terms and, Dr. Dobriansky believes, derive from internal problems in each state. Political instability in Poland creates uncertainty, opening the way for mistrust of Warsaw's intentions vis-à-vis Kiev and Moscow. In Warsaw's view, the main irritant in the relationship is spillover from Ukraine's continuing economic difficulties: smuggling and other cross-border criminal activity. Warsaw also is watchful of Kiev's ties with Moscow, which continues to preoccupy Polish foreign policy.
Mistrust of Moscow and resolve to gain NATO membership have been constants of Warsaw's foreign policy through all Solidarity and postcommunist governments. Ukraine, Dr. Dobriansky reports, is presently neutral on NATO membership but supports Poland's entry. Kiev accepts Warsaw's argument that anchoring Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary in the Western alliance will enhance European stability, which is in the interest of all states in the region, including Ukraine.
