Turkey has a considerable influence on the Central Asia countries due to their common ethnic and linguistic roots and historical ties. The political and economic partnerships of the region with Turkey are active and growing due to Turkey's involvement in the Baku-Tbilisi oil pipeline project. The United States military is involved in the region and has its oil diplomacy interest.5 Iran has historical and cultural ties with the region, presently competing for the oil pipeline construction between the Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf.6 Currently, the Iranian National Oil Company is the Dzhask pipeline project executor. The length of the pipeline is 1,550 km and a total of $3.5 billion will be invested into it construction.7 Pakistan's major interest in the region is the natural gas from these countries.
Agricultural production and the extraction of natural resources have always been the economic core basis of development for the Central Asian countries. In recent years, the major challenge faced by these countries has been transitioning to market-oriented economies from a centrally planned social economic system. Since their independence in 1991 these countries continue to undergo changes and reforms in their social-economic and legal systems.8
Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan | Uzbekistan | Turkmenistan | Tajikistan
Kyrgyzstan was one the first former Soviet countries to join the World Trade Organization and open its markets to foreign investors since the 1990's.9 In 2000 the economy of Kyrgyzstan still was recovering from difficulties related to the economic challenges of the 1998 Russian economic crisis. However, foreign trade were restored, price and exchange rate stability and fiscal consolidation gradually recovered. Heavy external debt repayment remains and threatens to decrease the rate of economic normalization. Kyrgyzstan has been very successful in attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the country's chief economic sector of gold mining but unfortunately FDI sources in other sectors have proven problematic.10 Thus, as of 2004, some 45% of Kyrgyzstan's exports were in gold and cotton fiber. Nevertheless, the Kyrgyz economy is domestically unstable and faces political corruption challenges, although its development posture remains pro-Western. This is evident as it is the only former Central Asian republic that continues to host a U.S. Air Force and NATO installation at Manas.11
By the end of 2000, strong export growth and high inflows of FDI had enhanced Kazakhstan's economy. Its main export products are oil and natural gas. The economy of Kazakhstan differs from other Central Asian countries in that it has a well managed monetary policy and banking system. The same year Kazakhstan was able to pay all its debt to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As a result, the U.S. Department of Commerce certified Kazakhstan with market economy status, in recognition of its substantive market economy reforms, free currency convertibility, wage rate determination, favorable environment for the inner and external investments, and state supervision over the means of production and resources. In 2007 Kazakhstan's economy grew by 8.5%, however, increasing global commodity prices pushed inflation to 18.8 percent in 2007 and 20% in 2008.12
Tajikistan is considered to be the poorest Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) country and one of the poorest countries in the world as a consequence of a devastating civil war. Tajikistan obtains its revenues from exporting cotton and aluminum. More than half of the population in Tajikistan is involved in the agricultural industry, with most involved in activities related to cotton production. Much of the population is working outside the country.13 Thus, the economy is very vulnerable to external shocks. The government pursued a firm staff-monitored program under the IMF to promote macroeconomic stability.14 Nevertheless, corruption within the government chokes off economic growth and private ventures.
Turkmenistan is the second-largest cotton and natural gas producer in the region after Russia. Therefore, Turkmenistan has less dependence on the global energy market price changes because the natural gas prices were not as volatile as oil prices.15 In the past Turkmenistan has been almost entirely dependent on Russian pipelines to export its natural gas. This situation is now changing with the opening at the end of 2009.16 of the Turkmenistan-China pipeline which transports gas from eastern Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan into China's northwestern Xinjiang region, thus allowing Turkmenistan to fulfill a 2006 agreement with China to supply that country with 30bcm per year of gas over next 30 years.17
In 2004 Uzbekistan's cotton production exceeded one million tons, which is 5% of global production for that year. It is the 4th largest cotton exporter in the world and Central Asia's leading producer. In 2004 Turkmenistan produced 203,000 tons; Tajikistan--172,000 tons; Kazakhstan--148,000 tons and Kyrgyzstan, 40,000 tons - in contrast to Uzbekistan which produced 1,125,000 tons.18 However, the government has established a restricted import replacement policy to coordinate foreign trade and avoid capital outflow. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) recommends that the state focus on " environmentally sustainable rural development, private sector development, regional transport and customs transit, and human capital. Governance is emphasized as
a crosscutting theme".19 Russia and China are the main investors in the Uzbek oil and gas industry. In 2006 Uzbekistan became a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and, for a time, the Eurasian Economic Community (EurASEC), which it later left in 2008.20 The Central Asian economies are open but not fully integrated with the global economy in many ways. Kazakhstan is the richest and most economically developed one among the five Central Asian countries and has multifaceted relations to globalization. Many workers from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are employed in Kazakhstan and Russia as migrant workers. 21 Due to this fact, the migration rates and remittances are very high and Russian and Kazakh economies have major impacts on the economies of other Central Asian states.
According to the International Monetary Fund Survey from May 2009 the growth in Central Asia including the Caucasus was expected to decrease by 0.9% in 2009 as result of the global economic crisis.22
The global crisis has had major effects on Central Asia, which includes three oil and gas exporters (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) and two oil and gas importers (Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan). Even though the financial markets are relatively feeble in those countries, the crisis impacted the region's falling commodity prices and decreased export demand and transfer of funds inflows, particularly from Russia. The economic role of Russia remains significant in Central Asia and the rest of Commonwealth of Independence States even after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Most Central Asian countries are dependent on remittances from their northern neighbors.23 The current downturn in Russia and Kazakhstan has resulted in job- terminations for one to two million workers from their neighboring countries. One third of GDP in Kyrgyzstan and half of the GDP in Tajikistan are from remittances coming from abroad.24
Kazakhstan has experienced considerable consequences from its close incorporation into global financial market; in particular, the banking system was substantially affected by the U.S. financial crisis. The government response was to spend a third of its gross domestic product, in the amount of $45 billion, with the purpose of reinforcing, the Tenge, the national currency, in addition to aiding failing banks and supporting construction organizations.25
Most of the Kyrgyz financial sector is dominated by the Kazakh banks that contributed to Kyrgyzstan's declining rate of growth in the GDP.26 Although the Uzbek banking sector is governed by a highly centralized government authority, it was likewise affected by Kazakhstani banking and lending procedures. The financial sector of Turkmenistan too is under increasingly autocratic state control. Turkmenistan conducts sizeable transactions processing revenues from natural gas and cotton exports and the transfer of remittances from ex-patriots. In contrast, Tajikistan remains very poor, which has slowed its prospects for better integration into the global financial system.27
In conclusion, appropriate policy responses were made by Central Asian countries responding to the global crisis, including currency depreciation to lower foreign exchange inflows, easing monetary policy and launching short-term liquidity for restricting the credit crunch, as well as other fiscal stimuli. However, the IMF recommends that these countries take more measures such as allowing exchange rate flexibility to preserve competitiveness and enhance the country's currency; improving social safety nets to protect the poor; and imposing tighter banking oversight to reduce finance system vulnerabilities and sector risks. 28
Population, Area, GDP, Inflation, & Unemployment | Major Exports | Imports and Exports
Country | Population (2010 est.)
| Area sq km | GDP Purchasing Power Parity (2009 est.) | % Inflation (2009 est.) | Unemployment Rate (2009 est. except as noted) |
Kazakhstan | 15,460,484 | 2,724,900 | US $182 billion
| 7.3% | 6.3% |
Kyrgyzstan | 5,508,626 | 199,951 | US $12.09 billion
| 6.9% | 18% (2004 est) |
Tajikistan | 7,487,489 | 143,100 | US $13.65 billion
| 6.4% | 2.2% |
Turkmenistan | 4,940,916 | 488,100 | US $32.52 billion
| 10% | 60% (2004 est.) |
Uzbekistan | 27,865,738 | 447,400 | US $78.37 billion
| 14.1% | 1.1% |
Source: 2010 CIA World Fact-book https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html Viewed on December 31, 2010.
| Exports/GDP % | Major Exports |
| 2008 | 2009 | |
Kazakhstan | 57 | 42 | oil and oil products 59%, ferrous metals 19%, chemicals 5%, machinery 3%, grain, wool, meat, coal |
Kyrgyz Republic | 56 | 50 | cotton, wool, meat, tobacco; gold, mercury, uranium, natural gas, hydropower; machinery; shoes |
Tajikistan | 17 | 13 | aluminum, electricity, cotton, fruits, vegetable oil, textiles |
Turkmenistan | 73 | 76 | gas, crude oil, petrochemicals, textiles, cotton fiber |
Uzbekistan | 44 | 36 | energy products, cotton, gold, mineral fertilizers, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, textiles, food products, machinery, automobiles |
Source: 2009 CIA World Fact-book https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html and World Bank. World Development Indicators. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator
Country | Amount Exported 2008 free on board (f.o.b.) | Major Exports | Export Trading partners | Amount Imported 2008 | Major Imports | Import Trading Partners |
Kazakhstan | $66.57 billion | oil products, ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery, grain, wool, meat, coal | China, Germany, Russia | $37.53 billion | machinery and equipment, metal products, foodstuffs | Russia, China, Germany |
Kyrgyzstan | $1.676 billion | gold; mineral products; textiles; foods, beverages & tobacco; electric power; machinery and electrical equipment | The United Arab Emirates, Russia, China | $3.476 billion | mineral products, machinery & electrical equipment, chemical products, foods & beverages, textiles | China, Russia, Kazakhstan |
Tajikistan | $1.4 billion | aluminum, cotton, electric power, fruits, vegetable oils, and textiles | The Netherlands, Turkey, Russia, Uzbekistan | $3.2 billion | fuels, electric power and aluminum oxide | Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, China |
Turkmenistan | $9.887 billion | natural gas, oil, petrochemicals, cotton fiber, and textiles | Ukraine, Iran, and Hungary | $5.291 billion | Machinery and transport equipment, chemicals, and foods. | the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, the United States |
Uzbekistan | $9.96 billion | cotton fiber, gold, fuels, metals, food products, and machinery | Russia, China, Turkey, Ukraine | $6.5 billion | machinery, chemicals and plastics, foods, and metals | Russia, South Korea, Germany, China |
Sources: country profiles of the Federal Research Division, the Library of Congress and the 2009 CIA World Fact-book, UN data http://memory.loc.gov/frd/cs/profiles/; https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ and http://data.un.org/ Viewed on July 27th, 2009.
Source: 2009 CIA World Fact-book https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html and Country Profiles. Federal Research Division. Library of Congress. http://http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/profiles.html and UN data, http://data.un.org/ Viewed december 30, 2010.
IMF growth projections for the Central Asia (Real GDP, % change) |
Countries | 2007 | 2008 | Proj. 2009 | Proj. 2010 |
Kazakhstan | 8.9 | 3.2 | -2 | 1.5 |
Kyrgyz Republic | 8.5 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 2.9 |
Tajikistan | 7.8 | 7.9 | 2 | 3 |
Turkmenistan | 11.6 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 7 |
Uzbekistan | 9.5 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
Sources: data provided by country authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. [from July 27th 2009, (IMF Survey Magazine, 2009)]
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Subregional Summaries pp. 117-118.
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17. "Turkmenistan-China Gas Pipeline To Open In 2009." (August 21, 2006). Radio Free Europe: Radio Liberty. http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1070724.html Viewed on December 30, 2010.
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23. Sergej Mahnovski, Kamil Akramov, Theodore Karasik. Economic Dimensions of Security of Central Asia. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Project Air Force, 2007, pp. 15-16. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG417.html Viewed on April 15, 2014.
24. Martha Brill Olcott. "Asia's Overlooked Middle," International Economic Bulletin (June 2009). Carnegie Endowment for Peace. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=23288&prog=zgp,zru&proj=zie Viewed on December 30, 2010.
25. "Kazakhstan devalues currency amid banking crisis," Wall Street Journal, Market Watch, February 4, 2009 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kazakhstan-devalues-currency-amid-bank-crisis , Viewed on December 30, 2010.
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28. International Monetary Fund. "Crisis Virtually Halts Growth in Caucasus and Central Asia," IMF Survey Magazine. (May 11, 2009). http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/car051109a.htm Viewed on December 30, 2010.
Last updated: 11/19/2014
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